“新”伊拉克叛乱

中国伟大的战略家孙子曾写道:“知己知彼,百战不殆。”不具备这样的头脑就会遇到麻烦,而且通常是灾难性的麻烦。这一点当然适用于正发生在伊拉克的武装冲突,而了解这些叛乱的性质是至关重要同时也是极为困难的。

在一定程度上,伊拉克的叛乱反映了其历史上的先例。这样的冲突是“武装的戏剧”,敌手们同时陷入彼此胶着的对抗状态,向更为广泛的观众,特别是伊拉克人民传递讯息。如同所有的叛乱一样,公众支持(的获得)—或是缺失—将会决定其成败。

另外,这很可能是一种拖延式的表演。历史表明一旦某次叛乱达到“临界状态”,就需要十年或更长的时间来根除。和过去的叛乱一样,在伊拉克的冲突中,叛乱分子使用恐怖活动来胁迫公众,暴露政府的软肋,迫使该政权采取非常手段来应对,而这样一来就可能会让公众倒戈。

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