重议所谓“发展局限”

冷战结束以来,各种贸易壁垒纷纷解除,世界经济旧貌换新颜。1989年以前,全球经济包含大约8亿到10亿人口。如今增长了三倍,而且还在增长。确实,我们正在目睹现代历史上最为剧烈的革命之一,而人们对这一场革命几乎熟视无睹。“西方消费社会”已经从对世界人口少数人适用的一种模式转变为独霸全球的经济模式。而且,这一模式越发没有可以替代的其他模式了。到本世纪中叶,70亿人口的生活可能会接受其规则。

西方已经建立了二十一世纪的经济模式,其生活水准前所未闻,而且几乎所有国家和地区都在不计代价试图追赶。二十世纪七十年代之际,罗马俱乐部发布其著名的“发展局限”报告,人们对其的反应是忧心忡忡。但是,多年以来,世界经济继续不停顿地增长,而在当前全球化的时代看似不可限量。罗马俱乐部悲观的预计已经越发成为笑柄。但是,罗马俱乐部的基本洞察,也就是我们生活在一个容量有限的全球生态体系之中,资源以及能力总会耗尽,却再一次返回过来对我们提出挑战。

如今世界并非陷于所谓“发展局限”的考虑之中,但是,人们对人类发展对于地球气候和生态系统的后果却越发了解。例如,中国需要每年保持10%的增长以控制其巨大的经济、社会以及生态问题。如果中国是一个像卢森堡或者新加坡那样的国家,这也就不足为奇。但是中国有13亿人口。所以,其经济增长的后果也就更为严重。

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