La “crisis de los activos” de las economías emergentes

BEIJING – En teoría, el saldo de los flujos de entrada y de salida de capitales en los países en desarrollo debería ser positivo, es decir, deberían ser importadores netos de capital y la magnitud del saldo debería ser equivalente al déficit en cuenta corriente. No obstante, desde la crisis financiera asiática de 1997-1998, muchos países de Asia oriental han estado registrando superávits de cuenta corriente --y por lo tanto, se han convertido en exportadores netos de capital.

Resulta aun más extraño el hecho de que, a pesar de ser exportadores netos de capital, tienen superávits en sus cuentas financieras (de capital). Dicho de otro modo, estos países prestan no solo el dinero que han ganado mediante los superávits en cuenta corriente, sino también el que han pedido prestado mediante los superávits en cuenta de capital --principalmente a los Estados Unidos. Como resultado, los países del Asia oriental tienen ahora enormes reservas de divisas en valores públicos estadounidenses.

Si bien China ha atraído una cantidad importante de inversión extranjera directa, ha comprado una cantidad aun mayor de valores públicos estadounidenses. Mientras que los rendimientos promedio de la IED en China para las empresas estadounidenses fueron de 33% en 2008, el rendimiento promedio de las inversiones de China en valores públicos estadounidenses fue de apenas un 3-4%. ¿Por qué entonces invierte China una parte tan importante de sus ahorros en valores públicos estadounidenses de bajo rendimiento y no en proyectos nacionales con mayores beneficios?

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now