新兴经济体的“资产危机”

北京——理论上,发展中国家的资本流入和流出之差应该为正——它们应该是资本净进口国,余额应等于经常项目赤字。但是,自从1997—1998年亚洲金融危机以来,许多东亚国家一直拥有着经常项目盈余,成了资本净出口国。

更奇怪的是,尽管它们是资本净出口国,却有着金融(资本)项目盈余。换句话说,这些国家不仅借出了自己从经常项目盈余中赚得的钱,还把它们从资本项目盈余中借来的钱也借出去了——主要是借给美国。结果,东亚国家现在积累了巨大的以美国国债为形式的外汇储备。

中国尽管吸引着大量的外国直接投资(FDI),但其所购入的美国政府债券数量要更大。2008年,美国公司在中国的FDI平均回报率为33%,而中国的美国国债投资平均回报率只有3—4%。因此,为何中国要把这么多储蓄投资在低回报的美国国债上,而不投资于高回报的国内项目?

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