一个事关200兆美元的问题

过去二十年中全球宏观经济最为显著的趋势可能就是产量增长波动令人惊异的下降。例如,在美国,季度产量波动从八十年代中期以来已经下降了一半还多。很明显,产量变动的缓和并非在全球各地同时出现。亚洲经济的波动只是在九十年代末期金融危机以后才开始下降。在日本和拉美,只是最近十年波动才有实质性的下降。但是到目前 为止,波动下降已经变得全球盖莫如此,对全球资本市场产生了巨大的影响。

确实,2007年的主要问题就是宏观经济波动是否将会继续下降,进而引发对市场和房地产的又一个投机年份,还是可能出于不断增长的地缘政治中的紧张局势而开始再次上升。我表示谨慎乐观,但是投资者以及决策者需要理解回复到更为正常的波动水平所带来的后果。

投资者特别需要认识到,即使更大范围内的全球化和技术进步的积极趋势继续下去,宏观经济波动提高仍然能够导致资本价格的大跌。实际上,过去一二十年资本和地产的大幅升值有赖于更大的宏观经济稳定,同样也有赖于其他因素。产量和消费变得更加稳定之时,投资者就不要求较大的风险保费。风险的价格越低,高风险资产的价格就越高。

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