发达经济体又没劲儿了

纽约——2011年,一系列小概率大事件冲击了全球经济,尽管如此,金融市场持续上行,直至一个月前为止。年初高企的粮食、石油和商品价格,唤醒了高通胀的幽灵。中东地区的群众骚乱进一步推高了油价。接着,日本大地震打击了日本经济,也重创了全球供应链。随后,希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙丧失了融资能力,向国际货币基金组织(IMF)和欧盟寻求“保释”(bailout)。

但事儿还没完。虽然一年前希腊已经得到过一次保释,但A计划显然已经失败。希腊请求再度由官方出资保释,或是由私人债权人“作保”(bail-in)——到底选哪个,欧洲的政策制定者产生了严重的意见分歧。

稍后,对美国财政赤字不可持续前景的担忧引发了激烈的政治内斗,几乎造成政府关门。眼下,另一场围绕美国“债务天花板”的恶斗正在酝酿之中,如不能妥善解决,将导致美国公债“技术性”违约风险。

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