Russland: Zustände wie in den 70er Jahren

MOSKAU: Kann Russland dem mit hohen Ölpreisen einhergehenden „Ressourcenfluch“ entgehen, oder wird es dem erliegen, was wir als „70-80-Szenario“ bezeichnen? Dies ist die Frage, vor der die Russen heute stehen, und wir fürchten, dass ihr Schicksal Letzteres sein wird: Sollten die Ölpreise zwischen 70 und 80 Dollar verharren, dürfte Russland erneut zentrale Züge der Breschnjew-Ära der 1970er und 1980er Jahre durchleben, darunter eine stagnierende Wirtschaft und Zustimmungsraten zwischen 70 und 80% für seine politische Führung.

Der Ressourcenfluch hat natürlich zur Folge, dass die russischen Eliten es vorziehen werden, die Neustrukturierung der Wirtschaft und die Modernisierung der politischen und wirtschaftlichen Institutionen des Landes hinauszuschieben. Dies wird die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung untergraben und es unwahrscheinlich machen, dass Russland in den nächsten 10-15 Jahren zu den hoch entwickelten Ländern aufschließt, so wie Regierungsvertreter es versprechen.

Ein schnelles und nachhaltiges Wirtschaftswachstum erfordert Rechtsstaatlichkeit, eine rechenschaftspflichtige, leistungsorientierte und korruptionsfreie Bürokratie, den Schutz des Eigentums, die Durchsetzung von Verträgen und wettbewerbsfähige Märkte. Derartige Institutionen zu errichten, ist in jeder Gesellschaft schwierig. In Russland ist die Aufgabe besonders problematisch, weil die Interessen der herrschenden Elite dem entgegenstehen.

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