Le show façon années 70 de la Russie

MOSCOU – La Russie peut-elle échapper à la « malédiction des ressources » résultant des prix élevés du pétrole, ou va-t-elle succomber à ce que l’on appelle le scénario « des années 70-80 » ? Les Russes sont aujourd’hui confrontés à ces difficiles questions, et nous craignons que son destin ne prenne la voie de la seconde proposition : si les prix du pétrole se maintiennent à 70-80 dollars le baril, la Russie pourrait bien revivre certaines caractéristiques emblématiques de l’ère Brejnev des années 70 et 80 – avec une économie stagnante et des cotes de popularité de ses dirigeants politiques aux alentours de 70 à 80%.

La malédiction des ressources signifie, bien sûr, que les élites russes préfèreront reporter la restructuration de l’économie et la modernisation des institutions politiques et économiques du pays. Cela fragilisera les performances économiques dans les 10 à 15 années à venir et rendra improbable la convergence de la Russie avec les économies avancées, comme le promettent les autorités.

Une croissance économique rapide et durable requiert le respect de l’autorité de la loi, des bureaucrates responsables, évoluant selon les principes de la méritocratie et non corrompus, la protection des droits à la propriété, l’application effective des contrats et des marchés compétitifs. De telles institutions sont difficiles à bâtir quelques soient les sociétés. La tâche est particulièrement problématique en Russie parce que les intérêts des élites au pouvoir sont en contradiction avec la mise en place de telles institutions.

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