七十年代重现俄罗斯

莫斯科——

俄罗斯最终是逃过高油价的“资源魔咒”,还是会被我们所谓的“70~80”前景击倒?这就是今日俄罗斯面临的挑战。我们认为,恐怕后者的可能性更大一些。如果原油价格继续维持70~80美元一桶的价格,俄罗斯就要回到20世纪70~80年代勃列日涅夫执政时期的日子了——经济停滞不前,而政治领导人支持率高达70%~80%。

当然,资源魔咒意味着俄罗斯精英阶层将推迟经济重组以及政治经济制度的现代化。这非常不利于经济发展,使得官方难以兑现未来10~15年内赶超发达经济体的豪言壮语。

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