La Thaïlande bientôt une république bananière ?

BANGKOK – "Le futur de la Thaïlande est en déshérence" déclarait un universitaire respecté, Thitinan Pongsudhirak. C'était peu avant la dissolution du PPP (Parti du pouvoir du peuple) et de ses deux partenaires de moindre importance de la coalition au pouvoir par le Conseil constitutionnel pour fraudes électorales commises par des responsables de ces partis il y a un an. Leurs dirigeants, dont le Premier ministre Somchai Wongsawat, sont interdits de politique pendant cinq ans. Cela a porté un coup à la popularité du gouvernement qui avait été élu. Le Parlement doit maintenant se reconstituer sans les trois partis qui soutenaient Somchai.

Avec la crise actuelle, l'Histoire ne fait que bégayer, car le PPP de Somchai était la résurrection sous un autre nom du Thai Rak Thai (les Thaïs aiment les Thaïs) crée par l'ex-Premier ministre Taksin, un personnage détesté par l'élite du pays à Bangkok, renversé par un coup d'Etat. Le PPP avait été créé après la dissolution du TRT lors du renversement de Taksin.

Il y a quelque chose de pervers là dedans, car les sondages récents montrent que Taksin reste très populaire auprès de la majorité de la population, dont la plus grande partie réside hors de Bangkok. Aussi, bien que deux Premiers ministres proches de Taksin aient été démis de leur fonction par la justice et par l'élite l'un à la suite de l'autre, les Thaïs ramèneraient sans doute au pouvoir un autre de ses partisans s'il devait y avoir des élections qui ne soient pas truquées.

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