红黄相争中的泰国

发自曼谷——在经历了整整3年的血腥街头抗议后,4年一届的泰国下议院议员任期将在今年11月届满,只待重新选举。对此现任总理阿披实·维乍集瓦(Abhisit Vejjajiva)早已表明会在5月的第一个星期请求解散下议院,而这一声明正是在他的政府勉强逃脱国会不信任动议案后作出的。如此看来,这一阶段正是为大选铺路的时候了。

但鉴于泰国近年来反复无常的政治局势,这种表面上的稳定和制度轮换依然危机四伏。而恰与世界其他地区的人民运动遥相呼应,泰国至今仍深陷于冲突和分裂之中:一面是根深蒂固的统治政权极力扶持阿披实,另一面则是迅速壮大的新生势力渴望获得选举权利。倘若要从这场冲突中取得任何和平成果的话,就非得有高瞻远瞩的退让与妥协不可。

泰国的这场街头政治始于2005年,当时腐败横生的他信·西那瓦( Thaksin Shinawatra)政府刚刚以压倒性优势赢得大选,却旋即遭军事政变推翻。谁知时隔两年,就在泰国军方修宪之后,他信扶持的代理人又赢得了大选,因为他在泰国东北部和北部这些贫困地区的“红杉军”群众基础依然强大。

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