Les leçons thaïes pour la Chine

PEKIN – Quels que soient les effets de la tourmente politique en Thaïlande, ils ne servent pas la cause de la démocratie en Chine. Les images des contestataires pro-démocratie et de la répression militaire ultérieure dans le centre de Bangkok ont été largement diffusées par les médias chinois, apparemment en toute impartialité. La Chine n’a en effet aucun besoin d’embellir le message politique.

Si un pays relativement riche et religieux connu comme le pays du sourire peut dégénérer aussi rapidement dans une lutte de classe sanglante, que se passerait-il si le Parti Communiste Chinois perdait son monopole du pouvoir ? Il n’est pas difficile d’imaginer une version chinoise de la révolte des chemises rouge, avec des leaders populistes exploitant le ressentiment et une jeunesse exaltée brulant les symboles du pouvoir et des privilèges à Pékin. Si une démocratie multiparti mène à des blocs électoraux agressifs et intransigeants, les personnes les plus sensées préfèreront alors un régime à parti unique qui garantit la stabilité sociale.

Utiliser les évènements en Thaïlande comme une excuse pour reporter la réforme politique serait malgré tout une erreur pour le gouvernement chinois. Le fossé entre riches et pauvres est sensiblement identique dans les deux pays, et il y a chaque année des dizaines de milliers de ‘perturbations illégales’ de classe en Chine.

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