Paul Lachine

Les limites des combustibles fossiles à l’essai

MILAN – Il est de notoriété que l'activité humaine, notamment l'utilisation de combustibles fossiles, contribue massivement à la hausse des taux de gaz à effet de serre (GES) dans l’atmosphère. Ces gaz, dont le dioxyde de carbone ou CO2, augmentent le risque de destruction du climat mondial. Cela signifie que les limites à notre consommation de combustibles fossiles ne peuvent être seulement mesurées en fonction des réserves disponibles, mais aussi en prenant en compte le coût qui se répercute sur l’environnement.

Or, une incertitude considérable demeure quant à l’ampleur que les répercussions du taux accru de GES dans l’atmosphère ont sur la température et le climat. Il faut prendre cette incertitude très au sérieux lorsque l’on souhaite élaborer des stratégies pour affronter le dérèglement climatique.

Les pays en développement à forte croissance, tels que le Brésil, la Russie, l’Inde, la Chine et d’autres pays du G20 – représentent désormais plus de la moitié de la population mondiale. En suivant leur courbe actuelle de croissance forte, ce qui semble très probable, le niveau de leurs revenus s'approchera de celui des économies avancées d'ici à 2050 ou peu après.

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