Poner a prueba a Putin en Siria

NUEVA YORK – No han escaseado los análisis de lo que el Presidente Vladimir Putin está haciendo en Siria y por qué. Sin embargo, gran parte de ellos han estado estrictamente centrados en el corto plazo y pueden ser demasiado negativos al evaluar las probables consecuencias a largo plazo de sus acciones.

Lo que sabemos es que Putin ha decidido acudir en ayuda del acosado régimen de Bashar Al Assad. Las bombas y los misiles rusos están lloviendo ahora sobre un despliegue de grupos armados que han estado combatiendo contra las fuerzas del Gobierno sirio, lo que ha brindado al régimen el respiro al que iba encaminada la intervención de Rusia.

Por malo que sea el gobierno de Assad y por muchas que sean las acusaciones a las que deba responder, este resultado probablemente será preferible a corto plazo al desplome del régimen. La dolorosa verdad en la Siria actual es la de que muy probablemente la implosión del Gobierno provocaría un genocidio, millones más de desplazados y la creación del llamado califato del Estado Islámico en Damasco.

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