Der Test für Putin in Syrien

NEW YORK – Was der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin in Syrien will und warum, ist ausgiebig untersucht worden. Ein Großteil der Analyse bezieht sich allerdings zu sehr auf die kurzfristige Perspektive und könnte sich für die Bestimmung der langfristigen Folgen seiner Aktionen als zu negativ erweisen.

Was wir wissen, ist, dass Putin dem umkämpften Regime von Bashar al-Assad zu Hilfe kommen will. Auf bewaffnete Gruppen, die gegen die syrischen Regierungstruppen kämpfen, regnen nun russische Bomben und Raketen herab, was dem Regime die von Russland beabsichtigte Atempause verschafft.

So schlimm die Assad-Regierung auch sein mag und für wie viel sie sich auch verantworten müsste: Diese Entwicklung ist kurzfristig betrachtet wahrscheinlich besser als ein Zusammenbruch des Regimes. Die schmerzhafte Wahrheit in Syrien ist heute, dass ein Kollaps der Regierung wohl zu einem Völkermord führen würde. Millionen weiterer Menschen wären auf der Flucht, und in Damaskus würde das sogenannte Kalifat des Islamischen Staats eingeführt.

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