Il decennio sino-americano

HONG KONG – Il vertice tra il presidente degli Stati Uniti Barack Obama e il presidente cinese Xi Jinping, che si terrà il 7-8 giugno prossimi in California, giunge in un momento di grande tensione tra le due potenze mondiali. Le questioni controverse - dalla pirateria informatica alla strategia "pivot" verso l'Asia degli USA - non devono però monopolizzare l'attenzione: se Obama e Xi avranno il coraggio di esporsi e di cominciare a delineare un percorso congiunto per il prossimo decennio, potrebbero scoprire di avere molto in comune.

I prossimi dieci anni saranno caratterizzati da importanti adeguamenti e cambiamenti strutturali a livello delle singole economie, e da una totale riconfigurazione dell'economia mondiale. Soprattutto, molto dipenderà dalle politiche adottate dalle due maggiori potenze, Cina e Stati Uniti, e dalla loro capacità di leadership e collaborazione alla creazione di beni pubblici globali e al mantenimento di un contesto economico stabile e aperto.

Sono molti i settori in cui una collaborazione è necessaria, e uno di questi riguarda la gestione delle risorse naturali e dell'ambiente. La crescita della Cina e del mondo in via di sviluppo porterà a un raddoppio della produzione mondiale nell'arco di 10-15 anni e, probabilmente, a una sua triplicazione nei quindici anni successivi. Il modello di crescita su cui i Paesi avanzati e quelli in via di sviluppo si sono basati finora non potrà funzionare nello scenario appena descritto, e il clima, l'ecologia, il cibo, l'acqua, l'energia e la vivibilità rischiano di soccombere alla pressione.

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