中美十年

香港—6月7日到8日,美国总统奥巴马和中国国家主席习近平将在加利福尼亚州举行峰会,其时正逢世界两大超群大国紧张正盛时。但决定性问题——从电脑黑客到美国的“返回亚洲”——并不是全部。如果奥巴马和习近平把目光放长远,着眼于未来十年中达成共识的方面,或许可以发现他们有很多共同之处。

下一个十年将以重大结构性调整和向个体国家的变迁为特征,全球经济作为一个整体将出现重大重新配置。最重要的是,很多将取决于两个最大经济体——中国和美国所采取的政治以及它们在创造全球公共品和维持稳定开放的经济环境方面的合作与领导。

许多领域需要合作。其中之一是自然资源和环境管理。中国和发展中世界的增长将让全球产出 在10—15年内翻番,并在又一个15年后再翻两倍。过去发达和发展中国家均依赖的发展模式不可能在规模增加一两倍后仍然有效。气候、生态、粮食、水、能源和生存率禁不起如此压力。

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