Paul Lachine

La  Chine sur la voie de la réussite

NEW HAVEN – C'est le retour en force de ceux qui doutent de la Chine. Leurs idées reviennent périodiquement toutes les quelques années. Néanmoins depuis pas mal de temps le Pays du milieu défie les prophètes de mauvais augures en continuant sa montée en puissance, le miracle économique le plus spectaculaire des temps modernes. Et il semble qu'il ne soit pas sur le point de s'arrêter.

Aujourd'hui on s'inquiète de l'inflation, de l'excès d'investissement, des hausses de salaire et des prêts à risque des banques chinoises. Selon des universitaires réputés, comme grand nombre d'autres pays en développement, la Chine pourrait se retrouver piégée dans la trappe du revenu intermédiaire [rester bloquée au stade de pays à revenu intermédiaire].

Ces inquiétudes sont en partie fondée, notamment en ce qui concerne l'inflation, mais elles tiennent à des généralisations abusives. Il y a 10 bonnes raisons pour lesquelles on ne peut s'appuyer sur l'expérience des autres pays pour prévoir l'évolution économique de la Chine. Les voici :

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