trump Mark Wallheiser/ Stringer

特朗普的后果

伦敦—对我们这些错判了美国总统大选的人来说,应该克制我们情绪上的反感,至少要克制一两个月,并尝试心平气和地判断特朗普执政对世界意味着什么。这里列举十项特朗普担任总统的可能后果,基本上利弊对半。

第一个好消息是美国的增长。在奥巴马总统的第二个任期,美国增长率几乎肯定将加速至平均每年2.2%以上。这是因为共和党对公共支出和债务的憎恶只在奥巴马这样的民主党主持白宫时才表现出来。如果总统是共和党,共和党总是乐于刺激公共支出、放松债务限制,里根和小布什时代就是明证。因此,特朗普将能够实施奥巴马屡次提出但始终无法实现的凯恩斯主义财政刺激。

由此导致的赤字可以被称为“供给侧经济学”,而不是凯恩斯主义刺激,但效果是一样的:增长和通胀双升。随着美国经济达到充分就业极限,增长的提高将推高通货膨胀,但坏消息可能要到2018年及以后才会出现。

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