Король луддитов все еще мертв

КЕМБРИДЖ. С самого начала индустриальной эпохи периодически возникал страх, что технологические изменения могут привести к массовой безработице. Сторонники неоклассической экономической теории предсказывали, что этого не произойдет, так как в этом случае люди найдут другую работу, хотя, возможно, после длительного периода болезненной адаптации. По большому счету, это предсказание оказалось верным.

За двести лет захватывающих инноваций с рассвета индустриальной эпохи повысился уровень жизни простого населения в большинстве стран мира, без какой-либо заметной тенденции к росту безработицы. Да, было много проблем, в частности периоды сильнейшего неравенства и все более страшные войны. В целом, однако, в большей части мира люди живут дольше, работают гораздо меньше и ведут более здоровый образ жизни.

Но нет никаких сомнений, что в настоящее время технологический прогресс ускорился, что может привести к более глубоким и основательным переменам. В известной статье 1983 года великий экономист Василий Леонтьев высказал опасения, что темп современного технологического прогресса настолько высокий, что многие рабочие, которые не смогут приспособиться, просто устареют, как лошади после появления автомобилей. Неужели миллионы рабочих будут просто списаны со счетов?

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