所有工人何去何从?

纽约—如今,技术创新者和CEO们似乎对未来将带来什么感到“乱花渐入迷人眼”。新生产技术让人们对被某些人所谓的“第三次工业革命”产生了狂热的兴奋。未来几年,机器人和自动化方面的技术进步将提高生产率和效率,为公司带来巨大的经济收益。但是,除非实施合适的政策提振就业增长,否则劳动力需求是否会随着技术长征的前进而继续增长还不得而知。

最新技术进步有三个偏向:它们大多是技术密集型(因此有利于已经掌握了金融资源的人)、技能密集型(因此有利于已经掌握了高技术熟练度的人)、劳动力节约型(因此降低了经济中低技能和半技能型岗位的总数量)。风险在于机器人和自动化在第三次工业革命尘埃落定前就取代了蓝领制造业就业岗位。

过去几十年来,智能软件的快速发展也许是决定即将到来的制造业革命的最重要力量。软件创新,加上3D打印技术,将为拥有足够教育程度参与其中的工人打开大门;但是,对其他所有人来说,这场革命好像发生在别处。事实上,未来工厂可能由1,000个机器人加上一名操纵它们的工人组成。就连商场楼面,Roomba机器人也能比任何工人更好更廉价地打扫完毕。

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