所有工人何去何从?

纽约—如今,技术创新者和CEO们似乎对未来将带来什么感到“乱花渐入迷人眼”。新生产技术让人们对被某些人所谓的“第三次工业革命”产生了狂热的兴奋。未来几年,机器人和自动化方面的技术进步将提高生产率和效率,为公司带来巨大的经济收益。但是,除非实施合适的政策提振就业增长,否则劳动力需求是否会随着技术长征的前进而继续增长还不得而知。

最新技术进步有三个偏向:它们大多是技术密集型(因此有利于已经掌握了金融资源的人)、技能密集型(因此有利于已经掌握了高技术熟练度的人)、劳动力节约型(因此降低了经济中低技能和半技能型岗位的总数量)。风险在于机器人和自动化在第三次工业革命尘埃落定前就取代了蓝领制造业就业岗位。

过去几十年来,智能软件的快速发展也许是决定即将到来的制造业革命的最重要力量。软件创新,加上3D打印技术,将为拥有足够教育程度参与其中的工人打开大门;但是,对其他所有人来说,这场革命好像发生在别处。事实上,未来工厂可能由1,000个机器人加上一名操纵它们的工人组成。就连商场楼面,Roomba机器人也能比任何工人更好更廉价地打扫完毕。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/lpjDDDD/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now