Researchers in lab where the first gene edited embryo was made Xinhua News Agency/Stringer

我们的经济未来已经落后了吗?

芝加哥—全球经济尚未从2008年经济危机中恢复,而关于未来——特别是发达经济体的未来——的担忧日益加剧。我的西北大学同事罗伯特·戈登(Robert J. Gordon)说出了很多经济学家的心声,在他的新书《美国增长的兴衰》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)中指出,此前一百五十年中的众多提高生产率的创新是无法逾越的。果真如此的话,发达经济体应该预计未来几年增长放缓和停滞。但未来真的如此黯淡吗?

也许不是。事实上,几百年来,经济学家的展望几乎总是悲观的。1830年,英国辉格派历史学家托马斯·麦考莱(Thomas Macaulay)观察道,“在每个时代,每个人都知道,截止到他所生活的时期,进步性改进一直在发生;没人会认为下一代还会发生任何改进。”——他问道,为什么人们会预测“只能走下坡路”?

不久,麦考莱的远见就被铁路时代的黎明所证实。钢铁、化工、电力和工程的变革式进步接踵而来。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To access our archive, please log in or register now and read two articles from our archive every month for free. For unlimited access to our archive, as well as to the unrivaled analysis of PS On Point, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/2C7I8Rn/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.