Researchers in lab where the first gene edited embryo was made Xinhua News Agency/Stringer


芝加哥—全球经济尚未从2008年经济危机中恢复,而关于未来——特别是发达经济体的未来——的担忧日益加剧。我的西北大学同事罗伯特·戈登(Robert J. Gordon)说出了很多经济学家的心声,在他的新书《美国增长的兴衰》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)中指出,此前一百五十年中的众多提高生产率的创新是无法逾越的。果真如此的话,发达经济体应该预计未来几年增长放缓和停滞。但未来真的如此黯淡吗?

也许不是。事实上,几百年来,经济学家的展望几乎总是悲观的。1830年,英国辉格派历史学家托马斯·麦考莱(Thomas Macaulay)观察道,“在每个时代,每个人都知道,截止到他所生活的时期,进步性改进一直在发生;没人会认为下一代还会发生任何改进。”——他问道,为什么人们会预测“只能走下坡路”?


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