创新危机还是金融危机?

发自剑桥——随着一年的增长迟缓继续蔓延到下一年,人们对未来几十年的未来走向也出现了越来越多的争议。全球金融危机对发达国家的增长来说究竟只是一个残酷但短暂的挫折,还是暴露了更深层次的长期经济低迷?

最近,包括互联网创业者彼得·泰尔(Peter Thiel)和政治活动家及前国际象棋世界冠军加利·卡斯帕罗夫(Garry Kasparov)在内的一些作家都支持对经济放缓作相当激进的解读。在一本即将出版的书中,他们提出发达国家经济增长的崩溃不仅仅是金融危机的后果;而是从根本上反映了其科技和创新方面的长期停滞。同样地,如果不彻底改革创新政策,这些国家就不大可能出现生产力增长的可持续回升。

经济学家罗伯特·戈登(Robert Gordon)对这个观点思考得更为深入。他提出工业革命之后的250年技术高速进步时期有可能会被证明是人类历史上停滞规则的一个例外。事实上他认为相比从前的科技进步——例如电力、自来水、内燃机的发明和其他距今一百多年的突破性发明,现在的技术创新都黯然失色。

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