Wie man die PIIGS das Fliegen lehrt

NEW YORK – Die finanziellen Probleme Griechenlands sind, wie ich viele Male angeführt habe, nur die Spitze eines globalen Eisbergs. Denn die nächste Folge der jüngsten globalen Finanzkrise wird ein steigendes Länderrisiko sein, insbesondere in Industrieländern, die massive Haushaltsdefizite haben und hohe öffentliche Schuldenberge anhäufen, indem sie private finanzielle Verluste verstaatlichen, um das Wirtschaftswachstum wieder anzukurbeln.

Tatsächlich deutet die Geschichte darauf hin, dass schwere Rezessionen und die Verstaatlichung privater Verluste häufig zu einer unhaltbaren Zunahme der Staatsverschuldung führen. Ferner folgt auf Finanzkrisen, die durch übermäßige Schulden und Fremdfinanzierung im Privatsektor ausgelöst werden, nach ein paar Jahren häufig die Zahlungsunfähigkeit von Staaten und/oder eine hohe Inflation, um den realen Wert der Staatsschulden wegzuwischen.

Griechenland stellt zudem eine frühe Warnung für die Eurozone dar, in der alle PIIGS-Volkswirtschaften (Portugal, Italien, Irland, Griechenland und Spanien) an dem Doppelproblem der Tragfähigkeit von Staatsverschuldung und Auslandsverschuldung leiden. Die Einführung des Euro und der zuversichtliche „Konvergenzhandel“ erhöhten die Renditen für Anleihen in diesen Ländern auf das Niveau der deutschen Bundesanleihen, wobei der anschließende Kreditboom eine übermäßige Zunahme des Konsums förderte.

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