Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com, and author of MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown and Company, 2022). He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration and has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.
纽约 —— 希腊的财政困境只是冰山一角,我曾多次论证过。本轮全球金融危机的下一笔到期债务将是高企的主权风险,尤其是维持着巨额预算赤字和公债存量的发达经济体,它们在刺激经济复苏的同时,也把私营金融业的损失摊派到了全社会头上。
说真的,从历史上看,严重衰退和私人部门损失社会化叠加到一起,常常导致政府债台高筑,走上一条财政不可持续之路。此外,由私人部门的过度借债和高杠杆引发的金融危机,往往过了几年招来主权违约和 / 或高通胀(以稀释公债真实价值)。
希腊是欧元区的报警器,所谓的“欧猪五国”( PIIGS—— 葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙)全都面临公债和外债可持续性的挑战。加入欧元区和牛市收敛交易( convergence trade ,利用息差收敛趋势套利的交易 —— 译者)把这些国家的债券收益推高到德国债券的水平,从而催生了信贷繁荣,支持了这些国家的消费过度增长。
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