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纽约 —— 希腊的财政困境只是冰山一角,我曾多次论证过。本轮全球金融危机的下一笔到期债务将是高企的主权风险,尤其是维持着巨额预算赤字和公债存量的发达经济体,它们在刺激经济复苏的同时,也把私营金融业的损失摊派到了全社会头上。

说真的,从历史上看,严重衰退和私人部门损失社会化叠加到一起,常常导致政府债台高筑,走上一条财政不可持续之路。此外,由私人部门的过度借债和高杠杆引发的金融危机,往往过了几年招来主权违约和 / 或高通胀(以稀释公债真实价值)。

希腊是欧元区的报警器,所谓的“欧猪五国”( PIIGS—— 葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙)全都面临公债和外债可持续性的挑战。加入欧元区和牛市收敛交易( convergence trade ,利用息差收敛趋势套利的交易 —— 译者)把这些国家的债券收益推高到德国债券的水平,从而催生了信贷繁荣,支持了这些国家的消费过度增长。

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