Talento vs. capital en el siglo XXI

GINEBRA – Cuando los responsables de las políticas financieras intentan promover el crecimiento económico, casi invariablemente se centran en buscar nuevas maneras de liberar capital. Pero, si bien esta estrategia puede haber funcionado en el pasado, existe el riesgo de que no se le preste la atención que merece al papel que juega el talento a la hora de generar y concretar las ideas que hacen posible el crecimiento. De hecho, en un futuro de cambio tecnológico rápido y de automatización generalizada, es menos probable que el factor determinante -o el límite incapacitante- para la innovación, la competitividad y el crecimiento sea la disponibilidad de capital que la existencia de una fuerza de trabajo calificada.

Fuerzas geopolíticas, demográficas y económicas están reformulando incansablemente los mercados laborales. La tecnología, en particular, está cambiando la naturaleza del trabajo en sí, haciendo que sectores y ocupaciones enteros se vuelvan obsoletos, a la vez que se crean industrias y categorías de empleos completamente nuevas. Según algunas estimaciones, casi la mitad de las profesiones de hoy podrían estar automatizadas en 2025. La especulación sobre qué las reemplazará va de las predicciones de oportunidades inesperadas hasta los pronósticos de desempleo en gran escala en tanto las máquinas vayan desplazando gran parte de la mano de obra humana.

Las primeras señales de esta alteración ya son visibles. El desempleo global llegó a 212 millones de personas, según la Organización Internacional del Trabajo, y será necesario que se creen otros 42 millones de nuevos empleos cada año si la economía mundial ha de ofrecer empleo a la creciente cantidad de personas que ingresan al mercado laboral. Mientras tanto, el año pasado, el 36% de los empleadores a nivel mundial dijeron enfrentar dificultades para encontrar talento, el porcentaje más alto en siete años.

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