二十一世纪的人才与资本之争

日内瓦—金融决策者在试图刺激经济增长时,几乎毫无例外地聚焦于解放资本的新方法。但是,尽管这一方针在过去也许起了作用,但它也会导致忽略人才在构想和实现让增长成为可能的思想方面的作用。事实上,在技术变革迅速、自动化大行其道的未来,创新、竞争力和增长的决定性因素——或天花板——更可能在于能否获得高技能劳动力而不是资本。

地缘政治、人口和经济力量无情地改变着劳动力市场。特别是技术,它正在改变劳动本身,淘汰一整套部门和职位,同时创造全新的行业和岗位类别。一些人估算,今天的职业有将近一半可能在2025年实现自动化。取而代之的会是哪些东西?有人预测会出现出人意料的机会,有人预测会因为机器取代大部分人类劳动力而出现大面积失业。

这一破坏趋势的初步迹象已经显现。根据国际劳工组织的数据,全球失业总人数已达2.12亿,而如果想要给越来越多的新晋劳动力大军提供就业,每年就需要创造4,200万个新岗位。与此同时,去年全世界有36%的雇主报告人才难觅,为七年来最高比例。

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