Garder l’espoir en ligne de mire

BERKELEY – Les Etats-Unis ont un taux de chômage aux alentours de 10%. Dans certains pays, la politique budgétaire est menacée par des craintes légitimes que l’escalade des dépenses entrainera une crise de la dette publique. Dans de nombreux autres pays, c’est la confusion qui est faite entre les déficits cycliques à court terme et les déficits structurels à long terme qui paralyse la politique budgétaire.

Par ailleurs, la politique bancaire est paralysée par une réaction populiste opposée à des sauvetages supplémentaires tandis que la politique monétaire est elle paralysée par une étrange idée répandue chez les banquiers centraux qui craignent une inflation alors même que les salaires ne cessent de baisser. Comme le disait R.G. Hawtrey de leurs prédécesseurs à l’époque de la Grande Dépression, ils « crient ‘Au feu !’ sous le déluge de Noah ».

Il est temps de calmer les choses. Et la meilleure façon pour ce faire est de prendre un peu de distance et d’observer les choses à la longue vue.

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