策略生活年代

马德里—我们一直生活在幻觉中。多年来,世界相信从单极秩序向多极秩序的转变会是和平、有序、平稳的,中国、巴西和土耳其等新“选手”会以自然、和谐的方式适应已有的多边框架。大错特错。

事实上,随着朝向多极的转变有所进展,国际秩序也变得日益动荡和紧张。2008年全球金融危机加剧了不确定性和不信任,破坏了全球化等重要趋势。但最大的问题是发达国家——二战后国际秩序的设计者——没能找到包容性战略解决全球挑战和管理向新国际体系的转变。

为何失败,原因很简单:西方放任短期策略性问题阻碍长期战略愿景的发展。沉迷于策略影响了各级别政府,从地方当局一直到超国家机构,致使主要行动方在不合作的现实中运行,不再有任何共同目标指引决策。

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