Vencer a los que no quieren paz en Asia meridional

MONTREAL – Parece que las muy esperadas negociaciones de paz entre la India y Pakistán no tendrán lugar antes de las elecciones parlamentarias de mayo en India; y las perspectivas de conversaciones después de eso no están claras. Diversos factores prefiguran un período de intensa incertidumbre y posibilidad de conflicto: la victoria del nacionalista Partido Popular Indio (Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP) de Narendra Modi; un resurgimiento de los talibanes tras la inminente retirada de las tropas estadounidenses de Afganistán; y que Pakistán siga siendo incapaz de negociar con los talibanes paquistaníes o suprimirlos. Pero esto no debe ser motivo para abandonar los intentos de lograr la paz.

Es verdad que como pacificador, Modi trae unas credenciales muy cuestionables, tanto para su país como para Pakistán. Modi era jefe de ministros de Gujarat en 2002, cuando se produjeron violentos disturbios en los que fueron asesinados más de mil musulmanes. Muchos temen que si llega a primer ministro, polarizará a todo el país en divisiones intercomunitarias. Y hasta ahora mostró una postura inflexible hacia Pakistán, y no parece que vaya a moderar su discurso, al menos por el momento.

Pero es probable que Modi se inspire en el último primer ministro del BJP, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, que en 1999 visitó Lahore para mantener conversaciones de paz con su homólogo paquistaní Nawaz Sharif (vuelto al poder en 2013). Tiene buenos motivos para hacerlo. La paz con Pakistán fortalecería su imagen personal, en la India y en el mundo, y sería un avance hacia la concreción de las ambiciones del BJP de convertir a la India en una gran potencia. También ayudaría a revivir la debilitada economía india al alentar la inversión extranjera, de cuyos beneficios Modi ya fue testigo en Gujarat.

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