克服南亚的和平干扰

蒙特利尔—人们早就在翘首期待的印度-巴基斯坦和平谈判似乎要推迟到印度5月议会选举之后了,并且此后的谈判前景也不明确。纳兰德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)的民族主义政党印度人民党(BJP)、美国即将从阿富汗撤军背景下的塔利班的死灰复燃,以及巴基斯坦迟迟未能镇压巴基斯坦塔利班或与其谈判,所有这些都表明未来不确定性很大,甚至面临着冲突。但没有理由放弃追求和平。

诚然,莫迪的维持和平记录颇可质疑,不管是在国内还是在巴基斯坦。2002年古吉拉特邦发生导致一千多名穆斯林被杀的动乱时,他正是古吉拉特邦首席部长。许多人担心,如果他当选总理,他将让整个印度陷入民族极化。此外,到目前为止,他对巴基斯坦的态度是决不妥协,并且至少在近期将将继续保持强硬态度。

但莫迪可能从他的BJP前辈瓦杰帕伊那里学到教训。瓦杰帕伊在1999年访问了拉哈尔,与巴基斯坦总理沙里夫(他在2013年重新掌权)举行了和谈。有很好的理由相信莫迪也会这么做。与巴基斯坦保持和平将巩固他在国内外的个人形象,从而有利于实现BJP在印度执政的雄心。这还有助于通过刺激外国投资提振印度疲软的经济,其中的好处莫迪在古吉拉特邦已有所目睹。

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