Миф о греческом аскетизме

БРЮССЕЛЬ – После победы противников мер жесткой экономии, партии «Сириза», на всеобщих выборах в Греции, «греческая проблема» снова будоражит рынки и политиков по всей Европе. Некоторые опасаются возвращения к неопределенности 2012 года, когда многие считали, что греческий дефолт и выход из еврозоны неизбежны. Тогда, как и сейчас, многие опасаются, что греческий долговой кризис может дестабилизировать – и, возможно, даже разрушить – валютный союз Европы. Однако в этот раз все действительно по-другому.

Одно критическое отличие заключается в экономических показателях. За последние два года другие периферийные страны еврозоны доказали свою способность к адаптации за счет сокращения бюджетных дефицитов, расширения экспорта и перехода к профициту текущих счетов и, тем самым исключили необходимость финансирования. Действительно, Греция оказалась единственной страной, которая последовательно оттягивает проведение реформ и сохраняет ужасные показатели экспорта.

Предоставляя дополнительный щит для периферийных стран еврозоны, Европейский центральный банк планирует начать закупку суверенных облигаций. Хотя правительство Германии официально не поддерживает количественное смягчение, она должна быть благодарна ЕЦБ за успокоение финансовых рынков. Теперь Германия может занять жесткую позицию по отношению к требованиям нового греческого правительства о масштабном списании долга и снятии мер жесткой экономии, при этом не опасаясь вызвать турбулентность на финансовом рынке, вроде той, которая в 2012 году не оставила Европе альтернатив кроме как оказание помощи Греции.

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