Il mito dell’austerità greca

BRUSSELS – Da quando il partito Syriza, fautore dell’anti-austerità, ha vinto le ultime elezioni in Grecia, il problema “greco” sta diventando nuovamente fonte di preoccupazione per i mercati e i policy maker in tutta Europa. Alcuni temono un ritorno all’incertezza del 2012, mentre molti ritengono che si possa verificare un imminente default della Grecia e l’uscita dall’Eurozona. Oggi, come già tempo fa, molti sono preoccupati che una crisi del debito greco possa destabilizzare – e forse anche portare al crollo – l’Unione monetaria europea. Ma questa volta la situazione è davvero diversa.

Una differenza cruciale risiede nei fondamentali economici. Negli ultimi due anni, gli altri Paesi periferici dell’Eurozona hanno dimostrato la loro capacità di adattamento, riducendo il deficit fiscale, aumentando le esportazioni, e spostandosi verso un  avanzo di conto corrente, evitando così la necessità di ricorrere a finanziamenti. Invece, la Grecia è l’unica che ha costantemente rimandato le riforme e mantenuto una pessima performance sulle esportazioni.

Garantire uno scudo aggiuntivo ai Paesi periferici: è questo il piano della Banca Centrale Europea che si cela dietro l’avvio al programma di acquisto bond. Anche se il governo tedesco non sostiene ufficialmente il Qe, la Grecia dovrebbe essere grata alla Bce per aver calmato i mercati finanziari. Ora la Germania può assumere una posizione severa sulle richieste del nuovo governo greco di svalutare il debito su larga scala e di porre fine all’austerità, senza temere gli stessi tumulti sui mercati finanziari che nel 2012 hanno lasciato all’Eurozona come unica scelta quella di attuare un piano di salvataggio per la Grecia.

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