Greece and EU flags Wassilios Aswestopoulos/ZumaPress

Почему Сириза Дрогнет

ЛОНДОН – Кажется, в очередной раз Греция, проскользнула сквозь финансовую ловушку. Изъяв со своих вкладов с резервного счета в Международном Валютном Фонде, она была в состоянии погасить €750 млн ($851 млн) – как ни парадоксально самому же МВФ – как только настал срок оплаты.

Это балансирование на грани не случайно. С приходом к власти в январе, греческое правительство, возглавляемое Премьер-Министром Алексисом Ципрасом, лидером партии Сириза, полагало, что угроза дефолта, - и, таким образом, финансовый кризис, который может ослабить евро - обеспечит переговорные рычаги, чтобы компенсировать отсутствие в Греции экономической и политической власти. Несколько месяцев спустя, Ципрас и его министр финансов Янис Варуфакис, высококвалифицированный эксперт в теории игр, все еще, кажется, предан этой точке зрения, несмотря на отсутствие каких-либо доказательств в ее поддержку.

Но их расчет основан на ошибочном предположении. Ципрас и Варуфакис предполагают, что дефолт заставит Европу выбирать только между двумя альтернативами: изгнать Грецию из еврозоны или предложить ей безоговорочное списание долга. Но, в случае дефолта Греции, у европейских властей есть третий вариант. Вместо того, чтобы форсировать “Grexit”, ЕС мог бы затянуть Грецию в западню внутри еврозоны и оставить ее без денег, а затем, просто сидеть сложа руки и смотреть на коллапс внутренней политической поддержки правительства Ципраса.

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