Greece and EU flags Wassilios Aswestopoulos/ZumaPress

Perché Syriza Dovrà Cedere

LONDRA – Ancora una volta, sembra che la Grecia sia sfuggita al cappio finanziario. Attingendo alle proprie partecipazioni in un conto di riserva del Fondo Monetario Internazionale, è stata in grado di rimborsare 750 milioni di euro (851 milioni di dollari) – ironicamente allo stesso FMI – proprio mentre il pagamento andava in scadenza.

Questa politica del rischio calcolato non avviene a caso. Fin dal suo arrivo al potere in gennaio, il governo greco, guidato dal partito Syriza del primo ministro Alexis Tsipras, ha creduto che la minaccia di default – e, quindi, di una crisi finanziaria che potrebbe dissolvere l’euro – fornisca una strumento di negoziazione per compensare la mancanza di potere economico e politico della Grecia. Mesi dopo, Tsipras e il suo ministro delle Finanze, Yanis Varoufakis, un esperto accademico della teoria dei giochi, sembrano ancora legati a questa visione, nonostante la mancanza di evidenze a suo sostegno.

Ma il loro calcolo si basa su una falsa premessa. Tsipras e Varoufakis suppongono che un default costringerebbe l’Europa a scegliere soltanto tra due alternative: espellere la Grecia dalla zona euro o offrire la riduzione del debito senza condizioni. Ma le autorità europee hanno una terza opzione in caso di default greco. Invece di costringere un “Grexit”, la UE potrebbe intrappolare la Grecia all’interno della zona euro e “affamarla” di soldi, poi semplicemente sedersi a guardare il crollo del sostegno politico interno del governo Tsipras.

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