Greece and EU flags Wassilios Aswestopoulos/ZumaPress

Pourquoi Syriza est voué à fléchir

LONDRES – Une fois de plus, la Grèce semble se serrer la ceinture sur le plan financier. En procédant à un retrait sur son compte de réserve du Fonds monétaire international, le pays a été en mesure de rembourser 750 millions € – ironiquement au FMI lui-même – au moment même où le paiement en question arrivait à échéance.

Cette stratégie de la corde raide n’a rien d’un hasard. Depuis son arrivée au pouvoir au mois de janvier, le gouvernement grec du Premier ministre Alexis Tsipras et son parti Syriza considèrent la menace du défaut – et par conséquent le risque de crise financière susceptible de faire exploser l’euro – comme lui conférant un levier de négociation de nature à compenser le manque de puissance économique et politique de la Grèce. Quelques mois après les élections, Tsipras et son ministre des Finances Yanis Varoufakis, expert universitaire de la théorie des jeux, semblent maintenir cette conception, malgré un manque total de preuves qui viendraient la sous-tendre.

Or, leur calcul repose sur un postulat erroné. Tsipras et Varoufakis pensent qu’une situation de défaut contraindrait l’Europe à faire un choix entre deux alternatives : exclure la Grèce de la zone euro, ou lui fournir un soutien inconditionnel face à sa dette. Seulement voilà, les autorités européennes disposent d’une troisième option face à l’éventualité d’un défaut de la Grèce. Plutôt que de pousser à la « Grexit », l’UE pourrait tout à fait piéger la Grèce à l’intérieur de la zone euro jusqu’à l’affamer de liquidités, pour ensuite se rasseoir et se contenter d’assister à l’effondrement du soutien politique national au gouvernement Tsipras.

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