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Politics

叙利亚最黑暗的时刻

Oct 19, 2016 Javier Solana

马德里—叙利亚冲突每持续一天都会变得更加复杂，国家前景也变得更加渺茫。深陷重围的阿勒颇市民天天担惊受怕，由美国和俄罗斯调停的最新停火协议崩溃后，这种体验现在又达到了新高度。在世界领导人齐聚联合国大会之际，停火协议的崩溃让局面变得万分被动。

叙利亚冲突最终结束后，其三个主要特征将让重建变得十分复杂。首先，战斗各方鸽派都践踏了国际人权法，违反了基本人道主义准则。事实上，阻止人道主义援助、袭击平民以及专门针对受国际法保护的据点，这些行为已经成为战争策略。

仅仅从4月以来，叙利亚医院就遭遇几十宗袭击，援助被阻挠，无法进入一些破坏最严重的村庄。阿勒颇的大部分医院在围城期间成为打击目标，被迫关门。

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Syria’s Shattered Mosaic
Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Longer Reads 5

Syria’s Shattered Mosaic

John Andrews views the country’s civil war in the context of the Middle East’s strategic disarray, assessing how Shlomo Ben-Ami, Christopher Hill, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and others think the outcome will reshape the region.

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Konstanzhoglo Konstanzhoglo Oct 24, 2016

"It also blurs the lines between rebels and Islamist radicals".
Wow, the author has an acute eyesight.
"I only wish I had such eyes, to be able to see Nothing! And at that distance, too!" (C) L.Carrol
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Ian Kiddle Oct 23, 2016

More propaganda from the country that instigated and funds the "civil war" in Syria I suggest that this author is more correct
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/10/23/lendman-reports-that-russia-keeps-making-the-same-mistake-over-and-over/
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Odyssios Redux Oct 23, 2016

'After more than five years of conflict in Syria, retreating without having found a solution is not an option.'

Of course it is. This is what we did in Vietnam, and will yet do in Iraq and Afghanistan - declare a famous victory and get the Hell out of Dodge. The same will be true with Brexit - assuming the entire lunacy is run to completion. Whatever calamitous deal (compared with present arrangements) is arrived at, the prime minister of the day will heap it with self-justifying praise.

Here is the only possible basis for a solution in Syria. However one views the Asad regime, it's there, legitimately so in international law, and will hang on as long as it cares to. Russia will see to that. There have been huge weapons flows to proxies, from all sides. Nothing will change til this is stopped. There is no plausible 'rebel' group which could be entrusted with even attempting to run a government acceptable to most Syrians.

The Russians are simply being direct in their actions - they said they'd support Asad, at his request, and are doing so. Brutally? Who isn't brutal these days? Notions of 'war crimes' and 'international rules of war' are quaint and irrelevant. Only overwhelming victors can afford to run that game - the US after WW2, for instance. Nobody will dare hold anyone to account 'after', because the accusers in turn would be rightly accused.

No; disengage, run down weapons by attrition (ie use), and maybe - just maybe, no guarantees - the situation will simmer down. Continuing slaughter in the name of avoiding slaughter or political chicanery by the 'other side' is grotesque. More than enough, already.
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Vidvuds Beldavs Oct 23, 2016

The 30 Years War that took place in Central Europe between 1618 and 1648 was a religious war that claimed eight million lives. The Syria conflict has such potential. Xavier Solana offers ideas to for resolution of the conflict. However, it appears that Assad has no interest in political resolution. He only sees military victory as a plausible outcome.
Assad is being encouraged by the Russian intervention to seize as much strategic territory as possible regardless of casualties or war crimes violations. The continued targeting of hospitals and use of chemical weapons against civilians is a tactic of this war based on the assumption that the victors will conduct their "Nuremberg trials". The possibility of an Assad victory rests on the success of the U.S. led anti-ISIS coalition defeating ISIS in Syria. In 2015 Damascus was under threat of being overrun by ISIS. Now, that ISIS is being steadily pushed back by the anti-ISIS coalition, that includes groups opposed to Assad the threat of ISIS seizing Damascus has become remote. Under a scenario where the US led coalition defeats ISIS as a territorial force in Syria and Assad with Russian support has largely destroyed major resistance from the opposition the next step appears to be to appeal to the international community to rebuild Syria
Mr. Assad should recognize that such a scenario has no plausibility. Why should the international community free Syria of ISIS so that his regime can gain total control?
Secretary of State Kerry attempted to 1) end the killing and 2) build the basis for political resolution involving all parties committed to the future of a Syrian state. The U.S. committed to get the opposition to the negotiating table assuming that Russia also committed to get Assad to commit to political resolution of the war.
Assad has demonstrated the incapacity to pursue political resolution. Russia and China would do the world much good by joining in a Security Council resolution that imposes UN control on Syria until the parties to the conflict politically resolve their differences. Acting by themselves the parties to the conflict are more likely to produce e a 30 year war rather than achieve political resolution.
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Muhammad NaIya Oct 23, 2016

Syria's Darkest Hour started when the Obama administration decided that the Arab Spring must leave out the Sunni Tribal Arab Monarchies. Thus after the Algerian Mohammed Buazizi, the Syrians happen to be the next disposable;e administration in that they are a Sunni majority nation ruled by a Shiite minority. This was exacerbated by the open but 'hidden' financing of the Islamists by the same GCC Tribes nations backed by the Obama administration. Unfortunately given the weight of the US at both the UN and other International fora not much could be done to end the massive suffering of the Syrian now.
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Wim Roffel Oct 23, 2016

Real justice for Syria would mean putting those foreign leaders who organized and funded the uprising in court. Unfortunately it looks unlikely that we will soon see Obama, Salman and Erdogan behind bars.

However, without that all local justice will just be a bad joke and the Syrians will do better to focus on the future.
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 19, 2016

Javier Solana says the war in Syria would finally end one day. He sees three issues that "will complicate reconstruction efforts," assuming Syria would still remain a unitary state, like Lebanon, which endured a civil war from 1975 until the early 1990s Lebanon. Again like Lebanon, the warring parties in Syria would reconcile and rebuild their country together.
To start with the author questions what to do with perpetrators of human rights abuses during the war. The Assad regime is not the only culprits of war crimes, other parties - albeit on a smaller scale - have also "disregarded international human-rights law and violated basic humanitarian norms." like "blocking humanitarian aid, attacking civilians, and targeting sites" - hospitals etc.
Second the countless numbers of players in Syria could "frustrate any peace effort," as they all have different interests. Parties that back the Assad regime - Russia and Iran - each has its own agendas and they are divided among them. While Assad "wants to remain in power; Russia wants to demonstrate its status as a great power capable of resisting the US; and Iran wants to increase its regional influence and secure access to the Mediterranean." There will be tensions between Iran and Russia, as the two have had their grievances in history. The Sunni Arabs who have been backing the Syrian rebels to fight Assad, will not stand idly by, and continue to support pockets of resistance against the regime.
Most of all the author sees the US-Russia "stalemate" as the main "obstacle in the path toward" peace in Syria. Not only "after so many broken ceasefires /do/ the two countries clearly lack mutual trust," Russia's annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine are said to have reignited the Cold War. These strained relations "could have far more worrying consequences than past diplomatic impasses." Russia has already suspended "an agreement to dispose of surplus plutonium unless the US meets certain conditions, including compensating Russia for the costs of Western sanctions" impossed following the 2014 land grab in Crimea.
The author points out how Putin exploits Obama's inaction during his last four months in office to help Assad create facts on the ground, before the next president succeeds him. Besides "the US is in an uncertain position now that rebel factions have regrouped and its direct cooperation with Russia is on hold." The Kremlin accused the US and its allies of trying to exert pressure on Damascus and Moscow, while doing nothing to convince mainstream rebels to distance themselves from "terrorist" groups, especially the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. It blamed the unravelling of the truce on the US, while accusing the "terrorists" of using the ceasefire to regroup and replenish their arsenals.
The armed rebels fighting Assad in Aleppo include nearly two dozen factions, grouped into different coalitions. This is a headache for the West, which had backed more moderate but less proficient fighters. But Sunni states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey support harder-line Islamists. If rebels in Aleppo are defeated by the Russian-backed regime, ISIS and Kurds might take advantage by seizing new territory. Aleppo is strategically important for all warring parties, due to its location.
Should Assad succeed in recapturing Aleppo, he might seek to retake the whole country. This would mean a protracted war, as the regime controls merely 30% of the country. Indeed, "the new map of players complicates things." The author insists a peace deal will require all parties to come to the negotiating table, "otherwise, any agreement will prove ephemeral. Likewise, in order to rebuild Syrian civil society for the long term, all of the warring parties will have to take responsibility for their crimes."
He also says "peace cannot be delivered by the US and Russia on their own," and urges European leaders to "step in to restart negotiations. The European Union has mistakenly sat on the sidelines of these talks for too long, despite Syria’s importance to its own security and interests, and despite its responsibility to Syria’s citizens. The EU should make every diplomatic and humanitarian effort to bring together all participating parties and end the violence as soon as possible. Only then can Syria’s reconstruction begin." It may be premature to suggest a "reconstruction" of Syria. Stopping the violence and ending the war are more realistic. The question is whether European leaders have sway over the regional players - Iran and Saudi Arabia - that are fighting a proxy war in Syria?
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David Morgan Oct 19, 2016

As Russia is accused of war crimes and the United Nations (UN) is gridlocked whilst Russia is still a permanent member of the UN Security Council, it should be suspended from this position until the war crimes are investigated. If as likely Russia is found complicit in war crimes it should be removed as a member of the Security Council and those found accountable held to account..

The five permanent members of the Security Council is a throwback to the Second World War and with Europe having two members , it is in urgent need of updating. The concept is great, however, as Russia is the main protagonist and holds a veto there is no way of restricting its actions.
- Konstanzhoglo Konstanzhoglo Oct 24, 2016
  
  if it were the option the permanent membership of the U.S. and GreatBritain would be continually suspended.:)
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M M Oct 19, 2016

It is not correct to say that the EU leaders have been sitting on the sidelines. The French, German and other EU diplomats have been very active throughout this crisis but faced fierce resistance from the two major players and of course the deteriorating relationship between the US and Russia has made things worst. The solution is and has always been in the hands of the US and Russia, regrettably there are numerous factors and obstacles in the way of any immediate and lasting solution in the short term. Aleppo is not the first time it is being destroyed, Hafez Al Assad, the father of the current Syrian leader had flatened it back in 80s' and atrocities were committed also back then. It is very surprising that no mention is being made in this article or anywhere on PS about the atrocities that have and are being committed in Yemen. The ME is a minefield, too many players with many conflicting interests. This very sad episode is like handing out Pandora's box to a kindergarten, the result is there for everyone to see and feel and what is even more sad is that this tragedy might very well last beyond the life span of the current political leaderships whom created it in the first place.
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