The guided-missile cruiser USS Monterey fires a Tomahawk land attack missile at Syria Matthew Daniels/U.S. Navy via Getty Images

导弹袭击并非叙利亚策略

纽约——“一次执行非常完美的打击…也不会取得更好的效果。我们完成了任务。”美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在一百多枚美国、法国和英国巡航导弹击中叙利亚三个据点短短几小时后在推文中说,据称这三个地点是与化学武器制造相关的。

“完成”任务的目的是传递这样一条信息,即使用化学武器对不负责任者来说不会是毫无代价的。理想情况下,像这样的惩罚性打击会阻止叙利亚政府、或其他任何国家再次违反《化武公约》使用化武。

但特朗普此举是否取得了震慑效果还远不明确。一年前进行的某种程度上规模较小的打击未能改变叙利亚行为,而最近这次打击也不太可能完成这项任务。巴沙尔·阿萨德政府利用化学武器取得的成效——获得了对杜马和东古塔叛军控制区的控制——超过了它所付出的代价。几乎可以肯定叙利亚政府会继续拥有化学武器,并可以在不为人知的情况下继续从事生产活动。

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