Siria: otra tragedia balcánica

BERLÍN – Las doctrinas pacifistas dirán otra cosa, pero combinar la diplomacia con la amenaza del uso de la fuerza militar es una táctica sumamente eficaz, como hemos visto en el caso de Siria. Lo que aparentemente convenció al presidente sirio Bashar Al Assad de aceptar el acuerdo patrocinado por sus principales aliados (Rusia y, menos directamente, Irán) fue la amenaza de intervención militar por parte de Estados Unidos. Parece que ahora Al Assad está dispuesto a entregar sus armas químicas a cambio de permanecer en el poder. Pero si el acuerdo fracasa, ¿qué sucederá con la credibilidad de Estados Unidos y de Occidente?

El acuerdo al que llegaron Estados Unidos y Rusia trajo alivio a la mayoría de las capitales occidentales, donde la dirigencia política no está lista para una intervención militar, incluso si el gobierno de Siria mata a su propia gente con gas tóxico (a tal respecto, el acuerdo equivale a una confesión de Al Assad). Después de una década de guerra en Afganistán e Irak, Occidente prefiere quedarse en casa; ni Estados Unidos ni el Reino Unido (ni tampoco la mayoría de los demás países de la OTAN) quieren quedar atrapados en otro conflicto imposible de ganar en Medio Oriente.

En la práctica, todas las alternativas que tiene Estados Unidos en Siria son malas. Una intervención militar puede prolongarse indefinidamente y contribuiría a aumentar el caos. Pero no intervenir producirá casi el mismo resultado y afectará seriamente (con graves consecuencias futuras) la credibilidad de Estados Unidos en una región en situación crítica. Además, la utilización de armas químicas es una invitación a la escalada del conflicto.

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