叙利亚的巴尔干式悲剧

柏林—和平主义或许不同意,但外交和军事威胁相结合是一种高效的策略,我们在叙利亚已经领教了这一点。美国军事威胁的可信度让叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德同意了由其主要盟友俄罗斯以及伊朗(较为间接地)牵线搭桥的协议。如今,巴沙尔似乎准备放弃化学武器,以此交换权力。但如果协议最后被破坏,将对美国和西方的信誉造成怎样的影响?

美国和俄罗斯所达成的协议让大部分西方国家长舒一口气,它们的政治领导人完全没有做好军事干预的准备,尽管叙利亚政府用毒气杀戮本国人民(从这个角度讲,协议无异于巴沙尔的认罪)。在经历了阿富汗和伊拉克的十年战事后,西方宁可呆在国内;不管是美国还是英国——或是其他大部分北约成员国——都不愿意卷入又一场不可能获胜的中东冲突。

事实上,美国和叙利亚只有糟糕的选项可选。军事干预看不到何时能够结束,而且只能增加混乱。但抽身事外也会造成类似的结果,并极大地动摇美国在这个饱受冲突摧残的地区的信誉,给未来造成严重后果。此外,部署化学武器无异于自动让事态升级。

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