Margaret Scott

El estancamiento sectario de Siria

PRINCETON – Lo que comenzó en Siria como una rebelión contra un régimen opresivo  ha ido convirtiéndose en una guerra civil sectaria y, más recientemente, en un conflicto por procuración. En ese proceso, la lucha ha llegado a ser cada vez más enrevesada, con programas en conflicto entre los aliados, junto con tensiones comunitarias muy arraigadas, lo que vuelve la situación casi ingobernable.

Por un lado, los Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea, Turquía, Jordania, Arabia Saudí y Qatar respaldan a la oposición, un aluvión de facciones armadas con programas e ideologías diversos, que van desde el nacionalista sirio hasta el yijadista mundial. Esa desunión refleja las fisuras de la sociedad siria, consecuencia de más de cuatro decenios de un brutal gobierno autoritario.

Por otro lado, Rusia y el Irán (y su apoderado, Hezbolá, en el Líbano), cada cual por sus motivos propios, apoyan el régimen del Presidente Bashar Al Asad. Las motivaciones de Rusia están vinculadas con la herencia de la Guerra Fría. El régimen de Asad ha adoptado constantemente una posición antioccidental, alineándose con la Unión Soviética y después con Rusia. Actualmente, Siria representa el único punto de apoyo que le queda a Rusia en el mundo árabe, mientras que todos los oponentes regionales de Asad son aliados de los EE.UU.

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