Las relaciones peligrosas de Siria

Después del asesinato del ex primer ministro libanés Rafik Hariri, todas las miradas se volvieron hacia Siria. Los grupos de oposición libaneses, así como los seguidores de Hariri acusaron abiertamente al régimen del presidente sirio Bashar Assad del asesinato. La administración Bush, aunque no ha culpado formalmente a Siria, lo hizo prácticamente y llamó a su embajador en Damasco. Se dice que los Estados Unidos están muy molestos por la negativa de Siria a retirar sus fuerzas de Líbano de conformidad con una resolución de la ONU.

La creciente oposición a la hegemonía siria en Líbano es sólo uno de cuatro problemas interrelacionados a los que se enfrenta aquel país. Los otros tres son el comportamiento de Siria en Iraq, sus relaciones con los Estados Unidos y la necesidad de una reforma interna. Si bien el inmovilismo corrosivo es la marca del régimen sirio, esos retos amenazan con reforzarse mutuamente y marginar aún más a Siria a nivel internacional de lo que está hoy en día.

En Líbano, los sirios han malinterpretado en repetidas ocasiones las intenciones de la administración Bush. En septiembre pasado, los Estados Unidos, junto con Francia, promovieron la Resolución 1559 del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, que exige la salida de Siria y el desarme de las milicias --sobre todo de Hezbollah. Eso se dio después de que Assad impuso ese mismo mes una extensión anticonstitucional del mandato del presidente libanés Emile Lahoud, a pesar de las advertencias francesas y estadounidenses. Con todo, hasta el momento, los funcionarios sirios dicen en privado que no creen que los Estados Unidos en serio pretendan que haya un retiro.

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