Syriens gefährliche Verbindungen

Nach der Ermordung des früheren libanesischen Premierministers Rafik Hariri richteten sich aller Augen auf Syrien. Oppositionsgruppen im Libanon wie Hariri-Anhänger beschuldigten das Regime des syrischen Präsidenten Baschar Assad, für die Tötung Hariris verantwortlich zu sein. Die Bush-Administration gab Syrien nicht offiziell, wohl aber praktisch die Schuld und berief ihre Botschafterin aus Damaskus ab. Es heißt, die USA seien extrem verärgert über die Weigerung Syriens, entsprechend einer Resolution der Vereinten Nationen seine Truppen aus dem Libanon abzuziehen.

Der wachsende Widerstand gegen die syrische Hegemonie im Libanon ist nur eines von vier miteinander verknüpften Problemen, mit denen Syrien zu kämpfen und auf die es sämtlich unzureichend reagiert hat. Die anderen drei sind Syriens Verhalten im Irak, seine Beziehungen zu den USA und die Notwendigkeit von Reformen im Inland. Auch wenn eine zersetzende Unbeweglichkeit eines der Markenzeichen des syrischen Regimes ist, drohen diese Herausforderungen, sich gegenseitig zu verstärken und Syrien stärker noch als heute zu marginalisieren.

Im Libanon haben die Syrer die Absichten der Bush-Administration wiederholt falsch eingeschätzt. Im vergangenen September sponserten die USA gemeinsam mit Frankreich die Resolution 1559 des UN-Sicherheitsrates, die einen syrischen Rückzug sowie eine Entwaffnung der Milizen – insbesondere der Hisbollah – forderte. Zuvor hatte Assad im September trotz amerikanischer und französischer Warnungen eine verfassungswidrige Verlängerung der Amtszeit des libanesischen Präsidenten Emile Lahoud erzwungen. Bis zum heutigen Tage aber erklären syrische Offizielle unter vier Augen, sie seien nicht der Ansicht, dass die USA es in Bezug auf einen Abzug ernst meinten.

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