Woman carrying flag of Syria Adolfo-Lujan/Flickr

El nudo sirio

BERLÍN – Durante cuatro años, una guerra sangrienta arrasó a Siria. Lo que comenzó como un levantamiento democrático contra la dictadura de Bashar al-Assad se transformó en una maraña de conflictos que refleja, en parte, una lucha de poder brutal entre Irán, Turquía y Arabia Saudita por el dominio regional. Esta lucha, como lo demostró el combate en Yemen, podría desestabilizar a toda la región. Y ahora Rusia, mediante su intervención militar en nombre de Assad, está intentando mejorar su condición de potencia global en relación a Occidente (y Estados Unidos en particular).

De manera que el conflicto en Siria está ocurriendo, por lo menos, en tres niveles: local, regional y global. Y, como se permitió que la lucha se agravara y se propagara, murieron aproximadamente 250.000 personas, según estimaciones de las Naciones Unidas. Este verano, la Agencia de las Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados calculó la cantidad de refugiados que habían huido de Siria en cuatro millones, además de 7,6 millones de personas desplazadas internamente. Mientras tanto, el flujo de refugiados sirios que ingresan a Europa se ha convertido en uno de los mayores desafíos que ha enfrentado hasta ahora la Unión Europea.

La guerra civil siria también se ha transformado en el terreno fértil más peligroso para el terrorismo islamista, como lo han demostrado los atentados de Estado Islámico (ISIS) en Ankara, Beirut y París, y el bombardeo de un avión de pasajeros ruso sobre la península del Sinaí. Es más, el derribamiento por parte de Turquía de un avión de guerra ruso ha resaltado el riesgo de que potencias importantes se vean involucradas directamente en el conflicto. Después de todo, Turquía, como miembro de la OTAN, tendría derecho a la asistencia militar de la Alianza si fuera atacada.

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