Man in demolished neighborhood in Syria Ammar/Xinhua via ZUMA Wire

Ключ к сирийскому договору

ДАВОС – Мирные переговоры по Сирии, которые планируют возобновить в Женеве 25 января будут состоятся согласно рамкам изложенным в Вене в октябре. Эти принципы, согласованные наиболее важными международными игроками в Сирийской войне, предоставляют собой, помимо всего, обязательство настроить светское управление государством, окончательное поражение Исламского Государства (ИГИЛ) и других террористических групп, поддержание довоенных границ Сирии, сохранение ее государственных институтов, и защиту меньшинств.

Что они не включают, так это попытку рассмотреть самое серьезное препятствие на пути к прочному миру: продолжающиеся нападения на гражданских лиц и другие зверства, которые усиливают раскол среди сирийских группировок, которые в конечном итоге должны будут править вместе. Если преднамеренная агрессия не прекратится, дипломатии в одиночку вряд ли будет достаточно для того, чтобы положить конец конфликту.

Война продолжается так долго отчасти потому, что сирийское правительство и те вооруженные группы, против которых оно ведет борьбу, оба верили, что они в конечном счёте выиграют. Вступление России в конфликт помогло изменить шансы. Но, в то время как российские ВВС укрепили силы правительства настолько, чтобы спасти его от краха, этого было недостаточно для того, чтобы добиться существенного прогресса в борьбе против оппозиции.

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