Man in demolished neighborhood in Syria Ammar/Xinhua via ZUMA Wire

A chave para um acordo sírio

DAVOS – As negociações para a paz na Síria que estão agendadas para serem retomadas em Genebra, no dia 25 de janeiro, terão lugar no âmbito de um quadro definido em Viena, em outubro. Estes princípios, acordados pelos intervenientes estrangeiros mais importantes na guerra da Síria, incluem um compromisso de governação secular, a eventual derrota do Estado Islâmico (ISIS) e de outros grupos terroristas, a manutenção das fronteiras da Síria anteriores à guerra, a preservação das suas instituições estatais e a proteção dos grupos minoritários.

O que eles não incluem é um esforço para resolver o maior obstáculo para uma paz duradoura: os ataques continuados contra civis e outras atrocidades que estão a intensificar as divisões entre as fações sírias, que acabarão eventualmente por terem de governar juntas. Se o massacre deliberado não acabar brevemente, é pouco provável que só a diplomacia seja suficiente para terminar com o conflito.

A guerra continuou por tanto tempo, em parte, porque tanto o governo sírio como os grupos armados que estão a lutar acreditavam que acabariam por prevalecer. A entrada da Rússia no conflito ajudou a alterar esse cálculo. Mas, embora o poder aéreo russo tenha apoiado o governo o suficiente para evitar que desmoronasse, não foi o suficiente para obter um progresso significativo contra a oposição.

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