Man in demolished neighborhood in Syria Ammar/Xinhua via ZUMA Wire

通往叙利亚协议的关键

达沃斯—计划于1月25日在日内瓦重开的叙利亚和平谈判将在10月份维也纳确定的框架下进行。这些由叙利亚战争最重要的外部行动方所一致确定的原则包括承诺世俗治理、最终击败伊斯兰国和其他恐怖组织、维持叙利亚战前疆界、保留其国家机构,以及保护少数群体。

这些原则没有包括的是如何克服持续和平的最大障碍:没完没了的针对平民的袭击以及恶化最终必须共同执政的叙利亚各派别分歧的暴行。如果有意为之的大屠杀不马上停止,光靠外交是无法结束冲突的。

叙利亚战争之所以持续了如此长时间,部分原因在于叙利亚政府以及与之对抗的武装组织认为都认为自己最后会胜出。俄罗斯介入冲突改变了这一平衡。但是,尽管俄罗斯空中力量足以让叙利亚政府避免崩盘,但并不足以让它获得对反对派的重大优势。

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