Trump, Syria, and the Threat of Region-Wide War

Apr 11, 2018 Fawaz A. Gerges

There is now a real and present danger that Syria will become the site of a conflagration even more destructive than the one raging there for the last seven years. But the biggest loser is likely to be the country that abandoned the fight.

BEIRUT – The die, it seems, is cast for a rapid end to the United States mission in Syria – and, with it, the chances of a peaceful and sustainable resolution to that country’s brutal seven-year civil war. The chemical attack allegedly carried out last week by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in Douma, the last rebel-held town in the Eastern Ghouta region, shows just how dangerous that prospect is for Syria and the world.

US President Donald Trump’s bluster in the wake of the chemical attack exposes the incoherence and contradictions of his approach, as well as his lack of any real strategy in Syria. Ordering an attack or two against Assad’s forces, as he might do, would neither alter the balance of power there, nor improve Trump’s position in the war-torn country, let alone the Middle East in general.

To be sure, Trump’s top military advisers have persuaded him to keep in place the 2,000 military personnel currently stationed in Syria. But he has already limited America’s objectives there to eliminating the small remaining Islamic State (ISIS) presence – an effort that should take about six months.

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Already have an account? Log in

Support High-Quality Commentary

US President-elect Joe Biden may have promised a “return to normalcy,” but the truth is that there is no going back. The world is changing in fundamental ways, and the actions the world takes in the next few years will be critical to lay the groundwork for a sustainable, secure, and prosperous future.

For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world’s foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.

As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads and book reviews, Say More contributor interviews, The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.

By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 in all 11 Comments on this article

Jonathan Engel Apr 23, 2018

The Middle East is a complicated place at the best of times, but since Obama promoted the "Arab Spring" with his visit to Cairo at the begining of his first term, the Arab World has been shaken as never before. With probably at least a million dead, and counting, the "series" begun in Cairo is working itself through the "Arab Winter", with the Muslim Brotherhood, who seemed to have been chosen by the US President to run the region's shift to an enlightened democracy, chased from power. The collapse of Libya, and the double civil wars there and in Syria started out as steps to that enlightened democratic vision, into which ISIS (sunni) and Iran+Hezbollah (shiite) added their contributions. Russia, seeing the opportunity of a Mediterranean opening with only minor cost added to the complexity. It seems to me that Trump is hardly making the contribution the Author is suggesting, just trying to save what can be saved, given the huge useless US effort to promote a enlightened future to benighted Iraq.

What he has done is to throw the Kurds under the bus, but that was perhaps to be expected. They can only survive if they win their own war of independence.

Unfortunately what the Arab Spring series has done is to remove all limits to ambitions for the Iranians, and the Iran Deal (again Obama at his best) has supplied the cash and credit to back such ambitions. The endlessly postponed "Great Sunni-Shiite War" is somewhat closer than it was.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
simon noble Apr 23, 2018

The message to Syria is indeed limited but perhaps it was as much directed at Russia. The US demonstrated that it could put together a combined response in a few days in spite of a lot of hype about domestic opposition in the UK and France. The strike was choreographed and presumably the Russians chose not to demonstrate the capabilities or lack thereof of their new anti-missile defence system either through fear of embarrassment or a desire not to give the US a free look.

Just as with Salisbury Putin must have been hoping that the West would be unable to agree in decisive action and he could muddy the waters with his PR/Propoganda exercise with the help of useful idiots like Corbyn. Instead he received a message that chemical weapons are a red line and that in spite of appearances and the Trump discord the "allies" are still capable of taking tough decisions. Assad will also have noted that when the chips were down Russia chose to stand aside. His victory will be only slightly delayed but he now knows that the first strike was not a Trump midnight tweet affair and he might rue having stirred him up enough to get the Saudis and others involved.

If there is a lesson from all this it is that right at the start Obama should have condemned the killing of civilians but firmly stated the US would not offer any material support. That might have speeded the involvement of extremists or it might have led to the protestors giving up. What actually happened ensured the worst of all worlds; condemnation, encouragement, let down, extremism, DAESH, limited involvement, Russian aggrandizement.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Curtis Carpenter Apr 22, 2018

I certainly agree that missile strikes are not a Syria strategy. But can there ever be a Syria strategy of any sort as long as the U.S. has no clearly stated objectives in the overall Middle East? Objectives that reflect an honest statement of U.S. interests in the region?

And if the U.S. was forthright in stating its objectives in the region -- would the American people have the will to pay the price their achievement would demand?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Robert Bruce Apr 15, 2018

It was the United States that helped destabilise the balance of power in the Middle East - first by removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, and then by backing rebel groups pledged to depose Bashar Assad in Syria. These changes ignited new ambitions for both external state players, and a complex mix of regional communities vying for political control of oil rich terratories.

However, with terrible irony, the proposed complete withdrawl of US forces from the region might trigger a second, and far worse phase of violence. The US calculus must now reflect the need to deter key parties which have more to gain from continuing violence than from suing for peace.

Much depends on the long term ambitions of Iran and Russia. They have already both gained a significant foothold in Syria. If the US withdraw from the region they are highly likely widen the confilict by uniting proxy players with grudges against Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Kurds. Even if they failed to weaken these powers, Iran and Russia could only gain from further destabilisation, that would be certain to drive up oil prices on the Global market. The real question is who can stop them from doing this, if not America ?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Elizabeth Pula Apr 13, 2018

A quote from an early article in THE NATION- by a militia-on-the-front:"Jaafar, an elite Hezbollah fighter who was previously stationed in Aleppo, refused to fight in Syria after his last deployment to the city in September, during the height of the siege but before the final advance. “We feel like we are puppets of the international community and we are slaughtering each other,” he says, declining to use his name out of fear of reprisal for discussing his refusal. Reservists and volunteers have previously spoken out about their reasons for refusing to fight in Syria, but not full-time recruits."

Here's the link-https://www.thenation.com/article/how-the-syrian-civil-war-has-transformed-hezbollah/

The reality in Syria is more factually based in the reality as this human being has said"We feel like we are puppets of the international community and we are slaughtering each other". That is the unfortunate predicament of SYRIA today! It has been for 6 years. This is a fight over gas and oil market control at the horrendous expense of Islamic and Christian cultures internationally. This is a fight based in greed, corruption and collusion by political and corporate stakeholders at the absolute extreme disregard of the "real stakeholders- the local citizens". Then the conflagration escalates due to cultural conflicts due to propagandists of Islam, Judaism, Zionism, Christians,etal political actors ad infinitum to destruction beyond Syria, into the Middle East, Europe and globally.
- Elizabeth Pula Apr 13, 2018
  
  This entire scenario is caused only by the few who exist within an elite financial economic structure based on economic destruction of other manipulated world economies. These activities are accomplished with total disregard and possibly with the intent to actually kill a majority of other human beings, that the few do not have to associate with, be concerned about, nor even acknowledge their "real" existence, and especially even to acknowledge the "others" as exhibiting any equal "human" identities or characteristics. These few are so ignorant, but they are powerful. However, they do not even "know" what they are doing in reality. I am writing this, while understanding the real meaning of the phrase- "Money is the root of all evil."
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
louay chaer Apr 12, 2018

It's a shame to see an arab defending, nay, demanding that an illegitimate occupying force of arab land remain instead of being a voice to end occupation (from all parties).
You make it seem like the US forces presence in that part of the world has been an element of stabilization. Our history is not a few years old. This did not start in a vaccum.
Shame!
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Paul Daley Apr 12, 2018

For the United States, what happens within Syria would seem to be of less importance than what happens to Russia as a result of its intervention. Ideally, the US would like to see Russia retreat from Syria as it did from Afghanistan, with its tail between its legs. Economic sanctions now appear to be reaching the point where they hurt; they should be tightened as provocations allow, in coordination with the EU. It's also probably time to cool relations with the Kurds and to repair relations with Turkey. Trump's push for an early exit of US ground troops from Syria is probably a first step towards that switch of allies. Lastly, the US may want to replace ground operations in eastern Syria with support for Israeli and Turkish air operations in western Syria.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Apr 12, 2018

Fawaz A. Gerges highlights the explosive situation in Syria: What began as a civil war had morphed into a tinderbox, which could ignite an inferno, “even more destructive than the one raging there since 2011.” The danger of a conflagration is “real and present,” with the time bomb ticking towards a war between Iran and Israel, backed by Saudi Arabia. Trump’s desire to kill the 2015 nuclear agreement Iran signed with the P5+1 is another source of tensions that add fuel to the fire.
The author rebukes Trump’s “bluster” following the chemical attack, because it “exposes the incoherence and contradictions of his approach, as well as his lack of any real strategy in Syria.” Last week Trump instructed military commanders to quickly wrap up the military operation in Syria so that he can soon pull American troops out, now that ISIS has lost ground. He changed his mind, after commanders told him they needed some troops on the ground to complete their mission. Besides they would seek to keep Iran’s influence in check and to counter Assad.
Now hard work awaits the US to defeat ISIS and stabilise areas recaptured from the Islamists, because they can no longer rely on the Syrian Kurds to sacrifice their lives for fighting ISIS. The Kurds feel betrayed by the Americans, who turned a blind eye to Turkey’s recent invasion in northwestern Syria. Backed by Islamist fighters, Turkey has driven the Kurds out of Afrin, slaughtering more than 1.000 of them. This prompted the Kurdish fighters to shfit their focus away from ISIS toward a Turkish offensive, or to “join Assad’s paramilitary units to avenge the loss of Afrin.”
The author says in limiting the US involvement, “Trump has forfeited the opportunity to help shape Syria’s future, reinforcing the widespread perception” that America is “in retreat,” and showing no regard for the ongoing humanitarian crisis there, which is “the worst since World War II.” America’s absence would strengthen the position of the other key foreign players – Iran, Russia and Turkey – allowing them “to consolidate their spheres of influence and divide the spoils of the post-war reconstruction among themselves.” Even though their “specific interests” diverge, the three “share a vision of a ‘soft’ partition of Syria that reduces Assad and the rebels to mere proxies.”
America’s passiveness emboldens Turkey to prevent the Syrian Kurds from gaining strength on its border, while strengthening Ankara’s ties to Moscow, at the expense of NATO. Iran and Russia have cemented their foothold in Syria and their investments – blood and treasure – to save Assad, have paid off. Iran has now a “corridor” of power from Tehran via Baghdad, Damascus to Beirut. Trump’s hapless strategy in Syria and his rash pledge to retaliate against Syria for chemical attack could “provide the spark that ignites a region-wide war.”
The author sees “ legitimate concerns that Israel might use the withdrawal of US troops as a pretext to intensify its attacks on Iran and Hezbollah in Syria.” Two days ago, Russia blamed Israel for an airstrike on a Syrian air base. Israel had in the past launched many strikes into Syria, mainly to protect its borders from a buildup of Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces and armaments on the Golan Heights. Israel has never wanted to take on Islamists in Syria, hoping Russia would preserve its interests by reining in Iranian-backed troops on its border. And Moscow had turned a blind eye to Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian targets. Yet the new situation could now “escalate into all-out regional conflict, one that draws in the US, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s main rival for regional hegemony.”
While the parties involved in the Syrian conflict seek to remain calm, despite a war of words, the risk of miscalculations and unitended provocations that could trigger an all-out war, can not be underestimated, because Russia and Turkey fear any inaction would be seen as a sign of weakness by their citizens. Russia says it will retaliate a US strike, should Russian soldiers be killed.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Elizabeth Pula Apr 11, 2018

The US needs to stay out of this escalating devolution of the Islamic culture. The US does not understand it, nor can the US correct or resolve it. If Islam wants to be beguiled to destroy its membership due to greed over oil and gas markets, then Islam needs to examine its principles, ethics, and laws, with some truth and honesty to its own people.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
M M Apr 11, 2018

We need to regulate the use of Viagaras. The use of Viagaras and the like should be banned for all over 60's especially for those holding a public office, for the ones under 60's there must be clear warning labels on all packaging similar to cigarettes. On a serious note, and should a real war erupts between the serious players in the Middle East, there shall remain no one to remember how it all started.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/O9fBmfl

Cookies and Privacy

Trump, Syria, and the Threat of Region-Wide War

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Support High-Quality Commentary

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Handpicked to read next

The Syrian Time Bomb

Log in/Register

Cookies and Privacy

Trump, Syria, and the Threat of Region-Wide War

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Support High-Quality Commentary

Handpicked to read next

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification