Dans la peau de Greenspan

BERKELEY – Les cercles que je fréquente lors de mes voyages font preuve d’une quasi-unanimité quant à un fait : les autorités monétaires américaines ont fait trois graves erreurs qui ont contribué à la crise financière, puis l’ont aggravée. Ce consensus est presque toujours corroboré par des déclarations comme quoi les présidents de la Federal Reserve ont bien servi les Etats-Unis, depuis le mandat de Paul Volcker tout du moins. Et ceux d’entre nous qui n’ont pas occupé ce poste savons très bien que nous n’aurions pas fait mieux. Le consensus qui se dégage néanmoins est que les décideurs américains se sont trompés :

·    en décidant d’esquiver une régulation fondée sur des principes, permettant ainsi au secteur bancaire fantôme de grandir par un certain effet de levier et des scénarios compensatoires. Ils croyaient que le gouvernement était une garantie suffisante, une protection contre le système bancaire commercial ;

·    lorsque la Fed et le Trésor ont décidé, une fois que les ennuis avaient commencés, de nationaliser AIG et de payer ses factures plutôt que de soutenir les contreparties. Ils approuvaient tacitement les financiers qui prétendaient que leur stratégie était saine à la base ;

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