Sobrevivir a la gran inundación de capital

A pesar de la reciente turbulencia de los mercados financieros, la dinámica subyacente de la economía mundial se mantiene esencialmente intacta. La gran cuestión no es cómo hacer frente a una depresión, sino más bien cómo sostener el auge global de hoy y los flujos de capital que lo acompañan. Frente a la expectativa de que el mundo siga creciendo rápidamente, existen excelentes oportunidades de inversión que estarán financiadas sólo si sigue ingresando capital a los países que lo pueden utilizar de manera productiva.

La buena noticia es que algunos países tienen grandes ahorros que quieren invertir en otros países, y no los disuaden los giros del mercado a corto plazo. De hecho, nuestras proyecciones demuestran que los influjos brutos (o totales) de capital a los países emergentes aumentarán de 400.000-500.000 millones de dólares apenas antes de la crisis asiática de 1997 a 800.000-900.000 millones de dólares en 2007 y 2008. Se espera que estos influjos lleguen al billón de dólares en un futuro no tan distante.

En retrospectiva, resulta evidente que en 1997-98 la débil regulación bancaria y gobernancia corporativa agravaron la profundidad de la contracción económica que siguió a la “repentina interrupción” de los flujos de capital. Pero, ¿cómo incide esto exactamente

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